U.S. Demand & Forecast

U.S. firearms demand

Our firearms sales numbers are the only independent proxies available on the market for the number of firearms units sold in the United States. We produce SAAF-adjusted firearms unit sales by month by state* by weapons type, and have the numbers available as from January 1999. (*Available for most U.S. states.)

Nation-wide firearms sales or registration data are not available for the United States. Before forecast models can be constructed, unit sales data must thus first be imputed. The process starts with raw data taken from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (FBI/NICS) and stripping out background checks unrelated to end-user sales. For instance, in December 2016, the state of Kentucky conducted some 360,000 so-called permit checks. In contrast, the number of checks conducted in firearms retail stores that month, i.e., at the point of purchase, was just over one-tenth of that.

Contact us at sales@SmallArmsAnalytics to discuss your forecast needs.