U.S. Demand & Forecast

U.S. firearms demand

Our firearms sales numbers are the only independent proxies available on the market for the number of firearms units sold in the United States. We produce SAAF-estimated firearms unit sales by month by state* by weapons type, and have the numbers available as from January 1999. (*Available for most U.S. states.)

Nation-wide firearms sales or registration data are not available for the United States. Before forecast models can be constructed, unit sales data must thus first be imputed. The process starts with raw data taken from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (FBI/NICS) and stripping out checks unrelated to end-user sales such as so-called “permit checks”. For instance, in January 2018, the state of Kentucky conducted some 385,000 permit checks, less than 17,000 of which resulted in a sale at the firearms retail store-level that month.

Contact us at sales@SmallArmsAnalytics.com to discuss your forecast needs.