U.S. Demand & Forecast

U.S. firearms demand

Our firearms sales numbers are the only independent proxies available on the market for the number of firearms units sold in the United States. We produce SAAF-estimated firearms unit sales by month by state by weapons type, and have the numbers available as from January 1999 (although we prefer to make available as from January 2000).

Nation-wide firearms sales or registration data are not available for the United States. Before data analysis can be done and forecast models be constructed, unit sales data must thus first be imputed. The process starts with raw data taken from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (FBI/NICS) and adjusting the Bureau’s data, for example by stripping out checks unrelated to end-user sales such as so-called permit checks. For instance, the state of Kentucky conducts monthly permit checks and rechecks numbering in the hundreds of thousands whereas actual monthly unit sales usually number in the low tens of thousands at the firearms retail store-level.

Contact us at sales@SmallArmsAnalytics.com to discuss your analysis and forecast needs.